Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Sep 2 · 13:00 · Sassuolo vs Frosinone
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 24%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo42%49%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Frosinone33%24%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 76% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 67% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
LossLossWinLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Aug 17 · v Cesena (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Parma (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Lecce (H)2-3
Frosinone
WinWinWinLossWin
- Aug 29 · at Fiorentina (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Juve Stabia (H)4-1
- May 8 · v Mantova (H)5-0
- May 1 · at Juve Stabia (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.