Serie A (Italy) · Tue, Jan 6 · 19:45 · Sassuolo vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 39%
A 34% home win. The market says 19%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo34%19%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Juventus39%56%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 44% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 81% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 26% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Jan 3 · v Parma (H)1-1
- Dec 28 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Dec 21 · v Torino (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · at Milan (A)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Fiorentina (H)3-1
Juventus
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Jan 3 · v Lecce (H)1-1
- Dec 27 · at Pisa (A)2-0
- Dec 20 · v Roma (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Dec 10 · v Pafos FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.