Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 18:45 · Sassuolo vs Lecce
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo59%35%+24
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Lecce17%36%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 52% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 64% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 65% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 49% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- May 8 · at Torino (A)1-2
- May 3 · v AC Milan (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · v Como (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Genoa (A)1-2
Lecce
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- May 9 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- May 1 · at Pisa (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Hellas Verona (A)0-0
- Apr 20 · v Fiorentina (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Bologna (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.