Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 3 · 14:00 · Sassuolo vs Parma
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 41%
A 33% away win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo41%47%−6
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Parma33%23%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 67% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Dec 28 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Dec 21 · v Torino (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · at Milan (A)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Fiorentina (H)3-1
- Nov 28 · at Como (A)0-2
Parma
LossLossWinLossWin
- Dec 27 · v Fiorentina (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- Dec 8 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Dec 4 · at Bologna (A)1-2
- Nov 29 · v Udinese (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.