Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Nov 24 · 19:45 · Sassuolo vs Pisa
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 39%
A 38% away win. The market says 24%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo39%46%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−6
OursMarket
Pisa38%24%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 42% | +21 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 76% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 66% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Nov 9 · at Atalanta (A)3-0
- Nov 3 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Oct 30 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
- Oct 26 · v Roma (H)0-1
- Oct 18 · at Lecce (A)0-0
Pisa
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Nov 7 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Torino (A)2-2
- Oct 30 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Oct 24 · at Milan (A)2-2
- Oct 18 · v Hellas Verona (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.