Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Aug 29 · 16:30 · Sassuolo vs Torino
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 50%
We make it 65% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo50%42%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Torino24%29%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 47% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 60% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 23 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Aug 17 · v Cesena (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Parma (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Lecce (H)2-3
- May 8 · at Torino (A)1-2
Torino
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Aug 23 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Carrarese (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Juventus (H)2-2
- May 17 · at Cagliari (A)1-2
- May 8 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.