Gulf Cup (Asia) · Tue, Sep 29 · 17:30 · Saudi Arabia vs Iraq
Likeliest: Saudi Arabia win · 53%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saudi Arabia53%49%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Iraq20%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 36% | +13 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saudi Arabia
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 26 · at Oman (A)3-0
- Sep 23 · v Kuwait (H)1-0
- Jun 27 · at Cape Verde (A)0-0
- Jun 21 · at Spain (A)0-4
- Jun 15 · v Uruguay (H)1-1
Iraq
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 26 · at Kuwait (A)3-2
- Sep 23 · v Oman (H)1-1
- Jun 26 · at Senegal (A)0-5
- Jun 22 · at France (A)0-3
- Jun 16 · v Norway (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Saudi Arabia | Iraq |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.