Gulf Cup (Asia) · Wed, Sep 23 · 18:00 · Saudi Arabia vs Kuwait
Likeliest: Saudi Arabia win · 41%
A 35% away win. The market says 15%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saudi Arabia41%61%−21
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+1
OursMarket
Kuwait35%15%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 85% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 39% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 80% | −26 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saudi Arabia
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Jun 27 · at Cape Verde (A)0-0
- Jun 21 · at Spain (A)0-4
- Jun 15 · v Uruguay (H)1-1
- Jun 9 · v Senegal (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Senegal (A)0-0
Kuwait
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Jun 5 · at Thailand (A)2-2
- Nov 18 · v Gambia (H)2-2
- Nov 15 · v Tanzania (H)4-3
- Oct 14 · v Morocco U23 (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Uzbekistan (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Saudi Arabia | Kuwait |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.