Gulf Cup (Asia) · Sat, Oct 3 · 15:00 · Saudi Arabia vs Qatar
Likeliest: Saudi Arabia win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Saudi Arabia50%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Qatar21%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Saudi Arabia
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 29 · v Iraq (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Oman (A)3-0
- Sep 23 · v Kuwait (H)1-0
- Jun 27 · at Cape Verde (A)0-0
- Jun 21 · at Spain (A)0-4
Qatar
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 30 · at United Arab Emirates (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · at Yemen (A)1-0
- Sep 24 · v Bahrain (H)2-0
- Jun 24 · at Bosnia & Herzegovina (A)1-3
- Jun 18 · at Canada (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | Saudi Arabia | Qatar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.