Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:00 · SC Austria Lustenau vs LASK
Likeliest: LASK win · 69%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 69% for the away win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Austria Lustenau10%12%−1
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
LASK69%69%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 31% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 14% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Austria Lustenau
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at TSV Hartberg (A)3-4
- Sep 19 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Austria Wien (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-1
LASK
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 14 · v Liverpool (H)3-6
- Oct 11 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at TSV Hartberg (A)3-3
- Sep 13 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · at AEK Athens (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | SC Austria Lustenau | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.