Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Nov 21 · 19:00 · SC Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag
Likeliest: SC Cambuur win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 26%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Cambuur43%26%+17
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
ADO Den Haag34%50%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 60% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 50% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 74% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 34% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Cambuur
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Nov 15 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-3
- Nov 7 · at Vitesse (A)4-0
- Nov 1 · v Jong Ajax (H)4-1
- Oct 29 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-3
- Oct 24 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-4
ADO Den Haag
WinWinWinWinWin
- Nov 7 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)4-0
- Nov 2 · at MVV Maastricht (A)4-3
- Oct 25 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-1
- Oct 20 · at Jong PSV (A)3-0
- Oct 17 · v FC Dordrecht (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | SC Cambuur | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 10-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.