Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:30 · SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Likeliest: AZ Alkmaar win · 72%
Likely score: 1–2
A 72% away win. The market says 67%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Cambuur10%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%18%−1
OursMarket
AZ Alkmaar72%67%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Cambuur
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at ADO Den Haag (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at SC Telstar (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
AZ Alkmaar
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 15 · v Hapoel Be'er Sheva (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Feyenoord (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.