Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 7 · 18:00 · SC Cambuur vs Excelsior
Likeliest: SC Cambuur win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 38%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Cambuur52%38%+14
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Excelsior24%37%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 63% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 62% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 51% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Cambuur
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Apr 24 · v Vitesse (H)2-1
- Apr 17 · at De Graafschap (A)1-3
- Apr 10 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-3
Excelsior
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- May 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-2
- May 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-1
- May 2 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
- Apr 26 · v FC Utrecht (H)5-0
- Apr 12 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | SC Cambuur | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.