Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Apr 6 · 14:45 · SC Cambuur vs FC Dordrecht
Likeliest: SC Cambuur win · 58%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Cambuur58%55%+4
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
FC Dordrecht21%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 71% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Cambuur
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 3 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-3
- Mar 24 · at FC Emmen (A)4-2
- Mar 20 · v Jong AZ (H)3-4
- Mar 16 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-0
- Mar 13 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-1
FC Dordrecht
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 3 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-3
- Mar 20 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-3
- Mar 17 · v TOP Oss (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at De Graafschap (A)1-2
- Mar 6 · v MVV Maastricht (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Cambuur | FC Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.