Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 23 · 14:45 · SC Cambuur vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 43%
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Cambuur38%10%+28
OursMarket
Draw20%16%+4
OursMarket
Feyenoord43%75%−32
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 67% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 52% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 25% | +32 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 90% | −28 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 84% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 11% | +36 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Cambuur
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 15 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-3
- Aug 7 · v Excelsior (H)0-4
- Apr 24 · v Vitesse (H)2-1
- Apr 17 · at De Graafschap (A)1-3
- Apr 10 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
Feyenoord
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 16 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Aug 9 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-0
- May 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
- May 10 · v AZ (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SC Cambuur | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.