Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 12 · 19:00 · SC Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Cambuur17%20%−3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen64%61%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 24% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Cambuur
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 6 · at SC Telstar (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
- Aug 23 · v Feyenoord (H)2-5
- Aug 15 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-3
- Aug 7 · v Excelsior (H)0-4
NEC Nijmegen
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 8 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Feyenoord (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at PEC Zwolle (A)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-3
- Aug 19 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | SC Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.