Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:00 · SC Cambuur vs Vitesse
Likeliest: SC Cambuur win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Cambuur51%45%+5
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Vitesse26%31%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 59% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Cambuur
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 17 · at De Graafschap (A)1-3
- Apr 10 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-3
- Mar 24 · at FC Emmen (A)4-2
Vitesse
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 17 · v MVV Maastricht (H)0-0
- Apr 13 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)3-0
- Apr 6 · v Jong Ajax (H)6-1
- Apr 3 · v FC Emmen (H)3-3
- Mar 20 · at Jong PSV (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | SC Cambuur | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.