Europa League (Europe) · Wed, May 20 · 19:00 · SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 43%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg43%18%+24
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Aston Villa31%57%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 43% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 82% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 25% | +34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
LossDrawWinLossWin
- May 16 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- May 10 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- May 7 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-1
- May 3 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Apr 30 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-2
Aston Villa
LossLossWinDrawWin
- May 15 · v Liverpool (H)4-2
- May 10 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- May 7 · v Nottingham Forest (H)4-0
- May 3 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-2
- Apr 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.