Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 7 · 14:30 · SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 44%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg44%32%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen32%40%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 51% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 60% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 68% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 45% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
- Feb 10 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 4 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-1
- Feb 24 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)0-0
- Feb 21 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-1
- Feb 18 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
SC Freiburg form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record