Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Dec 14 · 14:30 · SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 29%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg42%29%+13
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund31%44%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 56% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 71% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 40% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Dec 11 · v Salzburg (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Heidenheim (A)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
- Nov 27 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)0-0
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Dec 10 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)2-2
- Dec 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-1
- Nov 25 · v Villarreal (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.