Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 22 · 14:30 · SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 52%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg52%47%+5
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach27%25%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Feb 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
- Feb 10 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-3
- Feb 7 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Hamburger SV (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.