Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Apr 9 · 19:00 · SC Freiburg vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 41%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg41%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo35%29%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 44% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 51% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 59% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Mar 22 · at St. Pauli (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Genk (H)5-1
- Mar 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Mar 12 · at Genk (A)0-1
Celta de Vigo
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 5 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Mar 22 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-4
- Mar 19 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Mar 12 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.