Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 4 · 13:30 · SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 50%
We make it 72% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg50%15%+34
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+5
OursMarket
FC Bayern München27%66%−39
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 72% | 61% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 34% | +39 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 85% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 19% | +46 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Mar 22 · at St. Pauli (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Genk (H)5-1
- Mar 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Mar 12 · at Genk (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
FC Bayern München
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 21 · v FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
- Mar 18 · v Atalanta (H)4-1
- Mar 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Atalanta (A)6-1
- Mar 6 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.