Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:30 · SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 75%
Likely score: 1–2
A 75% away win. The market says 69%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−2
OursMarket
FC Bayern München75%69%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 31% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 12% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-2
- Oct 15 · v FK Jablonec (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)5-0
FC Bayern München
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v RB Leipzig (H)6-1
- Oct 13 · at Viking FK (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)7-0
- Sep 13 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 3.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.