Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:30 · SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
FC Schalke 0417%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)4-1
- Aug 27 · v Motherwell (H)4-1
FC Schalke 04
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v SV 07 Elversberg (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-3
- Aug 24 · at Hallescher FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.