Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 15 · 16:30 · SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 53%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg53%44%+9
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin25%27%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 44% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 56% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 62% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Mar 12 · at Genk (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
- Mar 1 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
FC Union Berlin
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 8 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-4
- Feb 28 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- Feb 6 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.