Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 74%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg74%70%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
FK Jablonec10%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 30% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)4-1
FK Jablonec
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)1-0
- Oct 2 · at Dukla Praha (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Zlín (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Baník Ostrava (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.