Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Nov 30 · 18:30 · SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg47%50%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%27%−1
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0526%23%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 69% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Nov 27 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)0-0
- Nov 22 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-6
- Nov 9 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · at Nice (A)3-1
- Nov 1 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-0
FSV Mainz 05
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Nov 27 · at Universitatea Craiova (A)0-1
- Nov 21 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-1
- Nov 9 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Nov 6 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.