Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 10 · 14:30 · SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 53%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Hamburger SV26%20%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 53% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 72% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 20 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-3
- Dec 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
- Dec 11 · v Salzburg (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Heidenheim (A)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)2-0
Hamburger SV
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Dec 20 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-4
- Dec 7 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-2
- Dec 3 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.