Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 19 · 13:30 · SC Freiburg vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg59%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Heidenheim21%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 74% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 16 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-1
- Apr 12 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Apr 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Mar 22 · at St. Pauli (A)2-1
Heidenheim
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Apr 11 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Apr 4 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.