Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 16:45 · SC Freiburg vs Motherwell
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 52%
A 24% away win. The market says 9%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg52%77%−25
OursMarket
Draw24%14%+9
OursMarket
Motherwell24%9%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 67% | −29 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 91% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 23% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 86% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 90% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 23 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)5-1
- Aug 20 · at Motherwell (A)3-1
- May 20 · v Aston Villa (H)0-3
- May 16 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- May 10 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
Motherwell
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Aug 20 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
- Aug 13 · v HJK (H)2-0
- Aug 9 · v Falkirk FC (H)0-0
- Aug 6 · at HJK (A)1-1
- Aug 2 · at Hibernian (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.