Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg39%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
RB Leipzig37%41%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 67% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 47% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- May 10 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- May 7 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-1
- May 3 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Apr 30 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
RB Leipzig
WinWinWinLossWin
- May 9 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-4
- Apr 24 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Apr 18 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Apr 11 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.