Europa League (Europe) · Thu, May 7 · 19:00 · SC Freiburg vs Sporting Braga
Likeliest: Sporting Braga win · 40%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg34%54%−20
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Sporting Braga40%20%+21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 48% | +24 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 80% | −21 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 46% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 74% | −28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinLossLossLossDraw
- May 3 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Apr 30 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Apr 23 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-2
- Apr 19 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
Sporting Braga
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- May 3 · v Estoril (H)1-1
- Apr 30 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Apr 26 · at Santa Clara (A)1-2
- Apr 23 · at Casa Pia (A)1-0
- Apr 19 · v Famalicão (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.