Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Nov 9 · 14:30 · SC Freiburg vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
SC Freiburg54%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
St. Pauli23%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Nov 6 · at Nice (A)3-1
- Nov 1 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)3-1
- Oct 26 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Oct 23 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-0
St. Pauli
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 1 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-4
- Oct 25 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-2
- Oct 19 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)0-3
- Oct 4 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.