Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Aug 30 · 13:30 · SC Freiburg vs SV Werder Bremen
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 70%
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg70%48%+21
OursMarket
Draw18%27%−9
OursMarket
SV Werder Bremen13%25%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 75% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 52% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 73% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 66% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 27 · v Motherwell (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)5-1
- Aug 20 · at Motherwell (A)3-1
- May 20 · v Aston Villa (H)0-3
- May 16 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
SV Werder Bremen
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Aug 22 · at LSK Hansa Lüneburg (A)3-0
- May 16 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
- May 9 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-1
- May 2 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-3
- Apr 26 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.