Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 3 · 17:30 · SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 61%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Freiburg61%38%+23
OursMarket
Draw20%27%−7
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg19%35%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 65% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 62% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 73% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 52% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Freiburg
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 30 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Apr 23 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-2
- Apr 19 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Apr 16 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-1
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Apr 25 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-0
- Apr 18 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)3-6
- Mar 21 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.