Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · SC Heerenveen vs Ajax
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 32%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen51%32%+19
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Ajax26%45%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 71% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 55% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 68% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 41% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
WinLossWinWinLoss
- May 10 · at NAC Breda (A)0-2
- May 3 · at FC Volendam (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at AZ (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
Ajax
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- May 10 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- May 2 · v PSV (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at NAC Breda (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.