Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 23 · 11:15 · SC Heerenveen vs AZ
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 32%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen44%32%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
AZ33%43%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 62% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 68% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 42% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Nov 8 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- Oct 28 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-0
- Oct 24 · v NAC Breda (H)3-3
- Oct 19 · at Telstar (A)3-2
AZ
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Nov 9 · v PSV (H)1-5
- Nov 6 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-0
- Oct 26 · v FC Utrecht (H)4-1
- Oct 23 · v Slovan Bratislava (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.