Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Excelsior22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v SC Telstar (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)2-2
Excelsior
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v FC Groningen (H)1-5
- Sep 19 · at AFC Ajax (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.