Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 9 · 14:45 · SC Heerenveen vs FC Twente
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 32%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen43%32%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Twente31%44%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 56% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 68% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 42% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- May 21 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-3
- May 17 · v Ajax (H)0-0
- May 10 · at NAC Breda (A)0-2
- May 3 · at FC Volendam (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
FC Twente
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 6 · v DAC 1904 (H)6-0
- Jul 30 · at Ferencváros TC (A)2-2
- Jul 23 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-2
- May 17 · at PSV (A)1-5
- May 10 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.