Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 1 · 15:45 · SC Heerenveen vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen53%50%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
FC Utrecht23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Jan 18 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Jan 15 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)3-1
- Jan 11 · v Feyenoord (H)2-2
- Dec 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
- Dec 17 · at Feyenoord (A)3-2
FC Utrecht
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Jan 29 · at Celtic (A)2-4
- Jan 25 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-1
- Jan 22 · v Genk (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Jan 13 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.