Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Jan 11 · 11:15 · SC Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 34%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen44%34%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Feyenoord33%40%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 60% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 66% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 46% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
LossLossWinWinWin
- Dec 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
- Dec 17 · at Feyenoord (A)3-2
- Dec 14 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · v PSV (H)0-2
- Nov 28 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
Feyenoord
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Dec 21 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Dec 17 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-3
- Dec 14 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · at FCSB (A)3-4
- Dec 6 · v PEC Zwolle (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.