Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 25 · 16:45 · SC Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 62%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen62%63%−1
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard19%17%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 83% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 37% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 78% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Apr 12 · at AZ (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
- Mar 22 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Mar 14 · v Telstar (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
Fortuna Sittard
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 12 · v NAC Breda (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at AZ (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Telstar (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.