Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 5 · 12:30 · SC Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 63%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen63%65%−3
OursMarket
Draw20%18%+2
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo17%16%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 67% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 35% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 80% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Mar 22 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Mar 14 · v Telstar (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · at PSV (A)1-3
Heracles Almelo
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Mar 20 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · at AZ (A)0-4
- Mar 6 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v PSV (H)1-3
- Feb 22 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.