Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 15 · 13:30 · SC Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 49%
A 28% away win. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen49%57%−9
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle28%20%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 43% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 74% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Feb 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)3-1
- Feb 7 · at FC Twente (A)0-5
- Feb 4 · at PSV (A)1-4
- Feb 1 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Jan 18 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
PEC Zwolle
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 7 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 31 · v Telstar (H)4-1
- Jan 24 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-2
- Jan 17 · v AZ (H)3-1
- Jan 10 · at FC Twente (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.