Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 22 · 19:00 · SC Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 68%
A 68% home win. The market says 60%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen68%60%+8
OursMarket
Draw18%21%−3
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle14%19%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 66% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 81% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 40% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 76% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 16 · at AFC Ajax (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v FC Twente (H)1-0
- May 21 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-3
- May 17 · v Ajax (H)0-0
- May 10 · at NAC Breda (A)0-2
PEC Zwolle
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 16 · at FC Twente (A)1-3
- Aug 9 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-2
- May 17 · v Feyenoord (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-3
- May 3 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.