Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:30 · SC Heerenveen vs PSV
Likeliest: PSV win · 45%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen31%24%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
PSV45%55%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 72% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 30% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Nov 28 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · v AZ (H)3-1
- Nov 8 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- Oct 28 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-0
PSV
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Nov 30 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
- Nov 26 · at Liverpool (A)4-1
- Nov 22 · at NAC Breda (A)1-0
- Nov 9 · at AZ (A)5-1
- Nov 4 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 3.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.