Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:30 · SC Heerenveen vs SC Telstar
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen60%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
SC Telstar19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at AFC Ajax (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v FC Twente (H)1-0
SC Telstar
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 9 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v SC Cambuur (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | SC Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.