Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:30 · SC Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 46%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Heerenveen46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam30%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 60% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Heerenveen
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 21 · at PSV (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v PEC Zwolle (H)4-2
- Feb 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)3-1
- Feb 7 · at FC Twente (A)0-5
- Feb 4 · at PSV (A)1-4
Sparta Rotterdam
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 22 · at AZ (A)1-3
- Feb 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-2
- Jan 31 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Jan 25 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | SC Heerenveen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
SC Heerenveen form·Sparta Rotterdam form·Head-to-head record