USL Championship (USA) · Wed, Oct 14 · 23:00 · SC Jacksonville vs Birmingham Legion FC
Likeliest: Birmingham Legion FC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Jacksonville26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Birmingham Legion FC51%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Jacksonville
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)0-1
- Sep 30 · at Miami FC (A)1-4
- Sep 25 · v Loudoun United FC (H)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Hartford Athletic (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Rhode Island FC (H)0-3
Birmingham Legion FC
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · at SC Jacksonville (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Brooklyn FC (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (A)0-4
- Sep 17 · v New Mexico United (H)4-4
| Last 10 games | SC Jacksonville | Birmingham Legion FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.